A new Netflix documentary by Morgan Neville revisits the films released in 1975—arguably one of the most remarkable years in movie history.

During those twelve months alone, audiences were given Jaws, Network, Nashville, Dog Day Afternoon, The Conversation, and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.

That’s an absurd concentration of cinematic greatness.

Neville’s documentary intends to celebrate that moment. But watching it inevitably invites a comparison with the present—and that comparison isn’t always flattering.

Modern Hollywood faces a number of problems that earlier generations of filmmakers never had to worry about.

The theatrical experience is shrinking as streaming dominates. Studios are constantly adjusting scripts to fit shorter attention spans. Political pressure on media companies has become increasingly visible.

Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape the creative landscape in ways that no one fully understands yet.

For people who love movies, it can sometimes feel like the industry is drifting away from the art form that once defined it.

And yet—surprisingly—this year’s Oscar contenders suggest that the situation may not be entirely hopeless.

The 2025 film slate produced several excellent movies.

Enough, in fact, that I’m willing to say Hollywood still knows how to make good films.

Which brings us to this year’s Academy Awards.

Below are my predictions for the major categories: who should win, and who likely will win.

Supporting Actress – A Career Moment for Amy Madigan

Horror films rarely receive significant Oscar attention.

This year, however, that changed.

Sinners has become a massive awards contender, earning a record number of nominations. Its story blends supernatural horror with a broader social allegory, giving the genre unexpected depth.

Meanwhile, the film Weapons delivered one of the year’s most memorable performances.

Amy Madigan plays an eccentric witch-like figure who dominates every scene she appears in.

Her strongest competition comes from Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners, whose emotional performance anchors the film’s central conflict.

But the Academy often enjoys honoring actors whose careers span decades.

That narrative could easily carry Madigan to victory.

Supporting Actor – Sean Penn vs. Stellan Skarsgård

This category features two completely different acting styles.

Stellan Skarsgård delivers a subtle, heartbreaking performance in Sentimental Value as a father attempting to reconnect with the daughters he abandoned years earlier.

Sean Penn, on the other hand, goes big.

His portrayal of Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another is bold, aggressive, and undeniably entertaining.

Subtle performances often win critics’ awards.

But the Oscars sometimes prefer the larger, more memorable turn.

Penn might have the edge.

Best Actor – A Chalamet Victory?

Several actors give excellent performances this year.

Ethan Hawke’s portrayal of lyricist Lorenz Hart in Blue Moon is especially moving, capturing the tragedy of a brilliant artist struggling with personal demons.

Leonardo DiCaprio also delivers one of his most enjoyable performances in years.

Still, the buzz surrounding Timothée Chalamet’s role in Marty Supreme is difficult to ignore.

His performance carries enormous energy and charisma.

It feels like the kind of role the Academy loves to reward.

Best Actress – Jessie Buckley’s Award to Lose

Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet stands above the rest.

The emotional complexity of the role demands tremendous range, and Buckley handles it beautifully.

Rose Byrne’s devastating performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You deserves recognition as well.

But Buckley’s work feels like the kind of performance that defines an awards season.

Best Director – Anderson vs. Coogler

This year’s directing race is essentially a duel between two filmmakers.

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is visually stunning and technically impressive.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is equally ambitious, blending political drama with thrilling storytelling.

Both films deserve recognition.

But Anderson seems poised to take the award.

Best Picture – One Battle After Another

The Best Picture category is unusually strong this year.

Films like Train Dreams, Sinners, and Sentimental Value all have legitimate arguments.

But the movie that seems most likely to win is One Battle After Another.

It captures the tension and uncertainty of the current cultural moment while remaining entertaining and accessible.

That combination often proves irresistible to Academy voters.

Enjoy the Oscars.

And if you’re planning to bet on these predictions, proceed carefully.

Oscar forecasting is notoriously unpredictable.